Monthly Archives: August 2013

My first Kickstarter funded project – Pressy

I’m not a big fan of Kickstarter. I’m not sure why, but it’s probably a matter of trust. There’s something about pledging money to strangers that doesn’t feel quite right. However, when I saw this post on GigaOM for Pressy, the Almighty Android Button, I couldn’t resist.

Pressy

According to the Kickstarter page

Pressy brings back simplicity to your phone. Perform your favorite and most common actions with a simple, intuitive physical button.

There was something about the simplicity, yet power, of the product that made me decide to go for it. It also helped that it looked as though it was selling pretty fast, and I’ve heard that popular Kickstarter projects can sell out, so I decided to jump in. At $17 for a button that plugs in to your headphone jack, it’s a pretty low risk gamble to take if it doesn’t come to fruition, or if doesn’t work great.

The possibilities for the button are seemingly endless. It comes with three actions pre-programmed: a single click to toggle your flashlight, one long click to toggle silent mode, and a double click to take a photo. With the included app, you can change the pre-programmed functions or assign your own which sounds pretty cool.

Pressy is slated to be available in four months or so. As of the date of this post, they’ve already raised $332,730 that’s way past their stated goal of $45,000. I’m looking forward to trying it out.

Charting Oil and Gasoline prices since 1991

I’ve always been a bit curious about the correlation between oil and gasoline prices. In other words, when oil goes up or down, how much and when do gasoline prices change.

Through an internet search, I was able to collect the monthly prices of both oil and gas from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. They have publicly available data on the price of gas that goes back to 1991, and for oil back to 1974. Below is the graph I created that shows how the price of oil (in red) against the price of gas (in blue) since 1991.

Oil prices vs Gasoline prices, February 1991 - June 2013

As you would expect, the prices track each other very closely. I did notice a few interesting items from the data:

  1. It’s not uncommon for it to take up to 2 months for changes in the price of oil to show up at the pump. In other words, changes in the price of oil don’t normally show up immediately in the price of gasoline.
  2. Over the 20 years of data, the price of oil has increased approximately 5x (from $20 to $100) whereas the price of gasoline has only increased around 3.5x (from $1.10 to $3.63). I’m not sure why there isn’t a one-to-one correlation, but I’m not complaining. If the correlation was exact, we should be paying closer to $5.50 per gallon.
  3. Speculation in the gasoline market never seems to last long. There are a few points where there was spike in gas prices that did not correspond to a spike in oil prices, but these spikes did not last for an extended period of time (examples are May 2001 and May 2007 time periods).

My second fascination has been understanding how much influence the president has on the price of oil. The media would lead you to believe that the president has significant influence over oil prices. They also paint the Democratic Party as an enemy of the oil industry which puts downward pressure on prices, whereas the Republican Party is cozy with the oil industry and supports higher prices.

To check this hypothesis, I looked at the prices of oil and gas during the last three administrations – Clinton, Bush, and Obama. I identified the low, high, and average price of both oil and gasoline during their presidencies. Obviously, the data for Obama is not complete and only covers up to June 2013. Let’s take a peek at the data.

Oil Prices during Presidency

Gas Prices during Presidency

While there are fluctuations in prices during a president’s term, the overall trend appears to be governed by forces of supply, demand, and inflation, with occasional speculative events mixed in. My conclusion from the data: the president does not have much influence or control over the price of oil and gasoline despite what the media would lead us to believe.

Book review: Brave New World

Brave New WorldAfter reading Neil Postman’s Amusing Ourselves to Death, I was drawn in to reading Brave New World by Aldous Huxley. Unlike many, I wasn’t required to read it during high school, and Postman’s numerous references and comparisons to how prescient Huxley was piqued my curiosity about what could possibly be in it.

Knowing that the book was required high school reading, that it was written in the 1930’s, and that it was branded a classic, I approached the book cautiously, figuring I’d be bored to tears and struggle to move from page to page. To my surprise, Huxley’s work blew me away.

In addition to confirming all of Postman’s observations, I found the overall story to be deep and suspenseful. I had a hard time putting the book down and finished it in a surprisingly short amount of time.

I was captivated by the plot and amazed at the parallels between events in the book and the trajectory our society is on. Huxley does an amazing job of portraying how humans could be controlled by overwhelming their sensory input with so many conveniences, technology, and distractions, that they have no reason to think independently. When you consider how much of our life is controlled today by the technology around us, whether it is our computers, tablets, mobile phones or television, and how everyday diversions such as sports and entertainment influence our lives, it makes one wonder which direction we are heading – the Orwell state where the government controls us through constant surveillance, or the Huxley state where the government controls us by premitting us to be overwhelmed with diversions and distractions. Or as Postman put it

In short, Orwell feared that what we hate will ruin us. Huxley feared that what we love will ruin us.

Brave New World is a must read book, especially after reading Postman’s Amusing Ourselves to Death. Even if you read the book in high school, after reading Postman’s work, you will see Huxley’s work in a different light. It will make you ponder and consider just what the advent of all of this technology around us is really doing to our lives.

What’s with all the accelerator programs?

Over the last two weeks, I’ve read about two more accelerator programs that have started – one by Coca-Cola and the R/GA Connected Devices Accelerator. It seems like every week there’s a new startup accelerator.

The startup accelerator is a model for getting new companies off the ground by providing a small amount of capital, access to mentors, and working space in exchange for equity. Y Combinator started the movement and has been followed by numerous others including TechStars, LaunchPad LA, Start Engine, Amplify, Betaspring, Excelrate Labs, and 500 Startups to name a few. They’ve become so numerous (and popular) that a website called Seed-DB was created to track them. By their current count, there were 171 programs worldwide that have seeded 2,891 companies with $2.6B in funding and have thus far achieved 155 exits worth $1.3B.

The falling costs of technology such as servers, storage and bandwidth have made it easier than ever to start companies, which explains the proliferation of accelerators. It’s possible to seed a lot of companies with a small amount of money. Providing a group with $50,000 to $100,000 enables them to make a lot of progress in developing a product, in some cases even getting it to market.

While this appears to be a great boon for the startup community, I worry that it could have a negative effect. Just like a proliferation of franchises in a professional sports league has the effect of diluting the product by spreading talent across a larger number of teams, I’m beginning to wonder if the proliferation of startups is diluting the quality of companies and products by spreading quality talent across an ever widening pool of companies.

From my first hand experience, starting a company isn’t glamorous, it’s hard, really hard. It takes a lot of skills, not just a few kids and a couple of computers. It requires engineers to build a product, staff to handle finance and accounting issues, marketing skills to position and promote the business and product, people capable of building a team through hiring and leadership, and a sales group that will generate revenue for the company.

I don’t believe that there are enough qualified people available to build the quantity of companies that are passing through these accelerator programs, especially when many great talents are leading Fortune 500 companies. Given the amount of talent it takes to build a world class company, there’s a reason it’s called the Fortune 500 and not the Fortune 5,000.

So just how hard is it to build a successful company? Y Combinator is billed as the model for the accelerator program. It launched in 2005 and has spawned a total of two companies that are considered to be billion dollar companies – Dropbox and Airbnb. Sure, there may be more companies that could grow to that value, but it shows that going through an accelerator does not guarantee success. It still takes a lot of work.

I run into emerging founders at various networking events and meetups throughout Southern California, and many of them are enamored with the accelerator concept. Given the facts, I try to caution them on the accelerator model. I’m not saying that accelerators should be avoided and are evil, but someone looking to start a company needs to do their homework before diving into a program. I advise them to do the following:

  • Research the program – not all are created equal
    VC Jeff Bussgang summarized it best when he said, “Just like with a college, your personal and professional brand will always be associated with that particular accelerator, so choose wisely.” I would encourage reading his advice about accelerators. It’s a little too rosy for me, but he does offer some good advice, particularly when he recommends researching an accelerator by reaching out to “graduates, senior entrepreneurs, VCs, start-up lawyers, bankers and accounting firms.” He also suggests checking out a list of top accelerators that is kept by Frank Gruber at Tech Cocktail.
  • Understand the accelerator’s motivation
    At the end of the day, an accelerator’s motivation is to make a return for its investors. However, many accelerators have secondary motivations that could have ramifications on your startup idea. For example, they may be trying to build a startup network in the city they reside in which would require relocation of you and your existing business. A less ideal situation could be an accelerator where the management team is in it to make a name for themselves, in which case the desire to build their ego could overrun you and your startup. Bottom line, do your homework.
  • Be willing to accept advice, but don’t relinquish the passion behind your idea
    Being coachable is important, but bear in mind that it’s your company. You have to maintain your passion in the face of adversity, strong opinions and criticism from mentors. Otherwise, you run the risk of having the accelerator mold you and your business into what they want it to be, which could lead to a lot of remorse if your business fails, as illustrated here.
  • Think big
    If your idea of a startup is a business where you eke out a modest living for you and your family, then stay away from the accelerator. You need to be targeting a billion dollars of enterprise value and be ready to put in the time and effort to make it happen.
  • How are failures treated
    Based on the stats above, only 5% of the startups accelerated have had an exit thus far. While some companies are still going, a large number have gone out of business. It would be well worth reaching out to these failures to understand their perspective on the accelerator and whether they would do it again. In addition, you should see how the leadership and mentors within their accelerator network treat them now that they are no longer associated with it. I would hope that they are still considered a part of the team, even if their company is no longer part of the portfolio.
  • Don’t treat it as a substitute/instead of getting an education
    Whatever you do, don’t listen to the advice of people such as Peter Thiel and substitute doing a startup for a college education. College is a unique opportunity that is best experienced while you are young. There will be plenty of opportunities to start a business throughout your lifetime, and the knowledge you learn and the network you build while at college will be a valuable part of launching and succeeding in your career. Bear in mind that the list of people who have started large, successful technology companies is a short list – Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg. Clearly, these individuals are the exception, not the rule. Don’t bet your success on being the exception.

Lots of people, lots of very good people who I respect, are promoting accelerators these days. They always seem to push how glamorous and exciting it is without focusing on the painful downsides. And why shouldn’t they? As investors in the accelerator, they have a vested interest in making sure that they can continue to attract the best and brightest to their program so it has the best chance of generating a financial return for them, their partners, and their investors.

It feels as if every trend these days has to be taken to extremes. Whether it’s investing in dot-coms, telecom infrastructure, housing, precious metals, or start-ups, we can’t seem to find the happy medium. I just hope that we’re able to pass through this period of irrational exuberance surrounding startups without tarnishing the experience for future generations of entrepreneurs.

Privacy – Have we reached the point of not return?

The fallout from the NSA PRISM surveillance program continues. A number of web services are shutting down out of privacy concerns for their users, with the latest being Groklaw, a community site that reviewed and commented on legal matters. Pamela Jones, who runs the site, left an emotional post about why she shut down her site which got me thinking, have we reached the point of no return on privacy?

If you don’t have time to read her post, which I would strongly recommend you do, she comments on why having privacy is so important in a democracy governed by the rule of law. One of the most important points she makes is a referencing a book by Janna Malamud Smith entitled “Private Matters: In Defense of the Personal Life”, where she says:

…the point of the book is that privacy is vital to being human, which is why one of the worst punishments there is is total surveillance….

Now comes the revelation via the Wall Street Journal that the NSA can read up to 75% of all US Internet traffic. Once an entity, government or non-government, has access to that much information, would they ever relinquish it? The better question to ask might be, why would they want to relinquish it?

As we know, information is knowledge, and knowledge is power. The ability to know what anyone is doing at anytime is powerful. From my past experience, once someone has access to that amount of power, there’s a tendency to abuse it, and to justify it while they do it. Have we already forgotten the lessons learned of scandals like Watergate?

It makes me worry that we’ve passed a point of no return. If our government has created laws and special courts that justify their right to monitor everything we say and do, what are the chances that the internet that we know and use today will ever be private and free again? Just like those temporary taxes that somehow never go away, my gut tells me that the privacy that we’ve lost will never be returned.

On top of that are the services and products that are here or coming that will erode even more of our privacy. Back when I was in high school and college, it was possible to go out, commit a few indiscretions, and only have your friends who were present to answer to for your actions. Today, everything you do is subject to permanency on Facebook or Twitter, and soon, products like Google Glass will be able to capture your every movement, whether you know the person wearing them or not. Information will be in the public domain for anyone – friends, family, employers and government – to watch what you do. If you’re at all concerned about privacy, it’s a scary thought.

All in all, it’s a shame and a sad state of affairs. As a friend of mine told me today, he thought that the internet would be the greatest legacy of our generation, a free and open portal that would allow for the sharing and growth of knowledge. Instead, the internet may turn out to be the scourge of our generation, the invention that enabled the totalitarian state that George Orwell foretold of in 1984 and stripped us of our personal privacy and freedoms.

Book review: Renewal

Renewal by JF PerkinsAfter finishing Wool and Shift, Amazon’s recommendation engine (which I love so much) kicked into high gear and suggested Renewal by JF Perkins. Apparently, reading Wool and Shift meant that I had a strong interest in post-apocalyptic fiction. After taking a peek at the mostly positive reviews and dishing out a whole dollar, I dove in.

Renewal is a ten book series that chronicles the plight of a post-nuclear war America, which Perkins refers to as The Breakdown. It’s written from the perspective of a young reclamation engineer and his mentor who live in the Coffee County area of Tennessee. The books build on one another and must be read in order. Each book can be read in one sitting if desired, and the story moves along at a good pace.

Within the book, Perkins maintains two plotlines. One is in the present, focusing on a young reclamation engineer who is befriended by a tribe of people who have formed a self-sufficient society. They operate independently of the surrounding area and government, which is severely under-resourced. Even forty years after The Breakdown, it is stretched too thin to help people rebuild their lives and communities.

The second is a flashback describing the first year after the nuclear holocaust. It’s a story of survival that graphically describes what happens when all of the  infrastructure that we take for granted, such as utilities, food distribution, law enforcement, and more, doesn’t exist. At times, I felt as though I wanted to take notes on the basic survival techniques he describes just in case the worst ever does happen.

I read the entire series over the course of a month and found it entertaining. The overall story and plot held together well, and I liked how Perkins developed the flashback and kept my interest as he tied in characters from the flashback to the present through the latter books.  My only disappointment was the ending. The build-up to a final showdown ended anti-climatically, but I wouldn’t let that stop you from picking it up.

I wouldn’t put Renewal at the top of my “must reads”, but it’s worth a read, especially if you’re a fan of post-apocalyptic fiction and are looking for an entertaining story that can be consumed in bite-size chunks.

How not to email spam

Like the rest of you, I get my fair share of spam email on a daily basis. A lot of it is unsolicited product and service sales pitches for my business. Lately, I’ve found myself scanning these emails, not because I’m interested in buying, but I’m curious how people are pitching their wares. Based on a survey of these emails, I’ve discovered some things people should stop doing, especially if you’re planning to spam me.

  1. Don’t explain, in detail, how bad I am at what I’m doing
    A lot of pitches are SEO services for my website. Their opening paragraph is a list of reasons why my current website sucks. Why say this before ever talking to me? I may have put a lot of time and effort into my site and be very proud of it. Maybe my site is in a state of transition. Maybe my wife built my site for me. In any case, insulting someone does not seem like a good way to get a person to return an email.
  2. Don’t insult my intelligence
    Another favorite of SEO emails is to explain to me that people who show up on the first page of search pages get more inquiries. Really? I would have never guessed that.
  3. Don’t name drop
    I really don’t care if your CEO is in town next week and wants to meet with me. If I don’t know you, your company, or your CEO, it really doesn’t matter who is in town from your company. It’s not worth meeting with you or anyone else from your company unless I have an interest in your product or service.
  4. Don’t write me a book
    If you need more than a few sentences to introduce you and your company, then you’re heading straight to the trash.
  5. Don’t ask me to contact you to set a time
    You spam me and want me to contact you to schedule a time? Assume my time is more valuable than yours and suggest a couple of times to talk. Otherwise, don’t expect a response.

If you want to get my attention through email, or anyone else’s for that matter, try the following:

  1. Be brief and direct.
    Have your elevator pitch down. You should be able to introduce yourself and your company in 2-3 sentences. Tell me who you are, what you do, and the value you deliver, That’s what I need to know so I can decide if what you’re offering is important to me.
  2. Ask a question related to your service
    For example, instead of dissing the search engine ranking of my website, ask about the status of my site and what I’m currently doing for SEO.
  3. Suggest a couple of times to talk
    If I’m interested and these fit my schedule, I’ll pick one and let you know. Otherwise, I can recommend an alternative.
  4. Be respectful
    Don’t take it personally if I don’t respond right away, or if I tell you ‘no’. Respond in kind and ask me to keep you in mind should the circumstances change. Life is too short to be unhappy and burn bridges. A positive attitude is infectious and leads to good karma.

I’m not against unsolicited sales emails. In fact, I’d rather get these than phone calls. They’re a lot less disruptive and can be way more informative. What I’m against is sales emails that are done poorly.

By taking a little time and putting a little thought into your sales emails, you may find that you get a lot better response, at least from me.

I hate Amazon’s recommendation engine

It’s official, I hate the Amazon recommendation engine.

My reading pace has picked up significantly this year. At first I thought it was due to buying a Kindle, which made reading way too convenient, but now I’m wondering if that’s the only factor contributing to my new addiction. I believe Amazon’s recommendation engine may have something to do with it.

Prior to owning a Kindle, I was rarely exposed to Amazon’s recommendation engine for books. I just didn’t read enough, or read often enough, for the suggestions to make sense. Most of the recommendations were centered around products, which typically came in after the fact. For example, after buying a new 55″ TV, getting recommendations for flat screen televisions just isn’t very useful.

Now, I’m getting bombarded with recommendations for books through email and on my Kindle. Once I seeded their algorithm with a few books that I read from similar genres, the suggestions of related books kicked into high gear. My first instinct is to ignore the recommendations, but they’ve helped me discover a number of good books. In fact, my wish list has gone from a paltry 5 items to nearly 40 in the course of a couple of months.

So why do I hate the recommendation engine, well…

  1. It’s made me become addicted to my Kindle. I have so much good material to read, that I’ve become attached to it. I’ve went as far as installing the Kindle app on my phone to feed my addiction when my Fire is out of reach (or out of battery).
  2. It never stops. Just when I think it can’t possibly offer anything new or that I haven’t already seen, it comes up with new recommendations that are oh-so tantalizing. It’s been taking a lot of discipline lately to keep me from growing my wish list even further.
  3. It’s costing me money. After figuring out how to satisfy most of my product needs, now Amazon has figured out how to get further into my wallet to separate me from my cash. A quick review shows I’ve purchased and read 25 books so far this year.

Let’s face it, Amazon has the whole online purchasing thing wired. When they’re able to consistently recommend items that fit my interests and that I enjoy, then they’re doing something right. So while I may complain that I “hate” their engine, it’s a good problem to have, and one I’m sure I’ll figure out how to put up with.

Book Review(s): Wool and Shift

Wool by Hugh C. HoweyAfter mowing through Daniel Suarez’s Freedom, I was casually browsing my Kindle for new material when a recommendation for Wool by Hugh Howey popped up. I had recalled an article on Brad Feld’s blog, and since his other recommendations had turned out so well, I figured I’d give it a try. It didn’t hurt that the first book in the series was free, so what did I have to lose other than a little time.

I found myself cruising through the short story in a little over an hour, which is pretty good for me since I’m not the fastest reader in the world. The book was an intriguing character study about a civilization that is relegated to living underground but has a fascination with the outside world that they cannot venture into without paying a substantial price – their life.

At the end of book one, Howey gives you a preview of Book 2 in the series, which gets you hooked into buying it, for the steep price of $0.99. In the second book, Howey paints an even deeper and more vivid picture of the underground environment, the politics of operating the silo (as its called) and the implied class system that has emerged. The imagery, the details, and the characters leave you wanting more, and by the end of Book 2, you’re ready for Book 3, which means you’ll be buying Book 4 and Book 5. At the end of the day, you’re probably best of just getting the Omnibus edition from the outset and saving yourself the angst of whether you’ll continue buying each book in the series, and save a dollar in the process.

Shift by Hugh C. HoweyAfter finishing Wool, you’ll be ready to jump into Shift. Again, it’s a series of short stories, three in total, but I would recommend buying the Omnibus edition again as you’ll find yourself reading all three in no time.

Shift is the prequel to Wool, but make sure you read Wool before Shift, or you’ll miss out on the brilliant story-telling of Howey and the genius with which he brings the story arcs of the two books together.

In addition to the connection between the two series, I also liked how Howey introduces pieces of hard science fiction into the Shift story. It helps to explain a lot of the background and events of Wool, but it’s done in a way that keeps you on the edge of your seat page after page. It’s truly amazing how he is able to connect the two books, and I give him a lot of credit for keeping the events of the two stories in sync. I’m sure they exist, but I’d be hard pressed to find any holes in the stories from the two books.

Dust by Hugh C. HoweyWool and Shift are in my must read category. Put together, it’s a great story, it’s very well written, it’s easy to read, and it’s very enjoyable. To top it off, Howey is in the process of releasing Dust, due out this month, which is the conclusion of the Silo story, so I’m sure you can guess what’s up next on my reading list.